Business should assume the continuation of the war in Ukraine

The latest talks at the White House did not bring any breakthrough agreements that could be regarded as a step toward a real peace settlement. Both in unofficial comments and in the official assessments of Ukrainian politicians and officials, there are no signs of optimism.

The key points that could serve as the foundation of a future agreement have not been developed – only hypothetical constructs were discussed, not coordinated with the Russian Federation.

The Ukrainian side views the visit positively, but mainly due to maintaining close relations with the U.S. administration and European leaders. From Kyiv’s perspective, the current priority is consolidating international military and financial support rather than pushing for a peace agreement that remains unattainable under present conditions.

Within the Ukrainian negotiation delegation, as well as in President Zelensky’s inner circle, there is a prevailing conviction that the absence of an agreement with Moscow does not currently pose a critical threat either to the authorities or to the state.

This approach is shaped by several factors:

1. Unattractive peace terms – Zelensky views his decisions through the prism of historical responsibility. Concluding an agreement that would be perceived as capitulation could negatively affect both the perception of his leadership and the future of the state.

2. Confidence in the stability of the front – The President believes that there is currently no risk of a frontline breakthrough or occupation of new territories. Based on available sources of information, this assessment generally corresponds to reality.

3. Lack of strong public pressure – Public opinion remains divided: part of society seeks a swift peace, while another – though smaller in numbers but more politically active – supports the continuation of the fight. The absence of a clear dominance by either group provides the authorities in Kyiv with room for flexible maneuvering and avoiding political risks.

4. Perception of Russia as weakened – In Ukraine, there is a widespread belief that the Russian Federation’s economy is entering a phase of growing difficulties and that its capacity for prolonged warfare is gradually being exhausted. The narrative of Russia’s “invincible power” does not enjoy wide support.

At present, it can be stated that the Ukrainian authorities have neither the will nor the motivation to sign an unfavorable peace agreement imposed by the Russian Federation.

In this context, we strongly recommend that businesses do not attach excessive importance to the intensive flow of information in this regard and continue their activities on the assumption that the war will last at least for the coming months.